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Recurring revenue modeling can be tricky, using cancellation curves can improve precision and results
In a recent post on SaaS financial modeling, I covered some of the main drivers that play a role in the construction of financial forecasts for SaaS and related business models. One of the most important aspects of such financial forecasts is the build out of contracted revenues. In general contracted revenues can be quite… Continue reading
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Crypto futures trading can produce serious returns with predictive algorithms
Predictive models underpin many trading systems. In this post, I discuss the application to the emerging world of crypto futures. Tradery LabsI recently had the pleasure of doing some advisory and coaching work with a startup called Tradery Labs. Tradery Labs is bringing futuristic predictive-modeling techniques into a highly honed system that will democratize the… Continue reading
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Key considerations for SaaS (or any recurring revenue) financial models
Build your components so the are easily expandable in time and detail In SaaS, decoding revenue dynamics is pivotal for pushing the business forward. Let’s talk about the elements of financial modeling tailored for SaaS companies: 1. Revenue Insights: MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue): This quantifies the predictable monthly revenue, offering immediate insights into short-term revenue… Continue reading
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An AI Crystal Ball? How We Predict Future Outcomes Using a Temporal Fusion Transformer Model
Our data science and analytics teams handle and apply lots of data for insightful decision-making. Last year, I presented the data science team with a challenge: use historical data to predict a key business driver for each of the next 8 periods. We wanted to have a data-driven preview of what we might see in… Continue reading
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Unlocking Value Creation: The Power of Lifetime Customer Value in Operational Execution
You might see it in various places as CLV (Customer Lifetime Value) or LTV (Lifetime Value). Lifetime Customer Value, or LCV, is what I call this metric. Fairly interchangeable in my experience, people who use these metrics regularly will know what you mean when you refer to any one of them. LCV’s compact measurement of… Continue reading
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Unveiling the Enigma: Contrasting Consumer Cash Reserves with Escalating Credit Card Delinquencies
A recent analysis sheds light on the intriguing interplay between burgeoning consumer cash reserves and the surprising surge in credit card delinquencies. Despite the Federal Reserve’s reports revealing a remarkable 2.5x increase in cash holdings for the bottom 50% of households, a deeper dive into Transunion’s credit data exposes an unexpected trend in delinquency rates… Continue reading
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Elevating Data Science with Operations Research Expertise
Introduction Who’s on a quest to develop advanced data science capabilities? One of my analytics team’s strategic expansion brought together diverse talents in statistics, applied math, and engineering. This case study explores the integration of operations research, fostering collaboration and knowledge diversity within analytics. Objective Our primary goal was to blend diverse skill sets, creating… Continue reading
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Decoding Consumer Balance Sheets: A Deeper Dive Beyond Savings Rates
Navigating the landscape of consumer finance, especially in the realm of excessive debt, prompts questions about the financial robustness of consumers and its potential impact on economic trends. In the post-COVID era, media discussions often revolve around the consumer savings rate, a metric influenced by stimulus measures and changing consumption patterns. However, a recent revelation,… Continue reading
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How We Replaced an Implementation of Workday Adaptive Enterprise Planning Management with Microsoft’s PowerBI Tailored for FP&A Reporting
Excel’s powerful capabilities, integrations and flexibility make it a favored tool for all financial and accounting professionals. Like many middle market companies, we considered moving from an Excel dominated financial planning and reporting process to an “enterprise grade” solution. A very difficult decision, we set aside Excel for a unified financial planning tool, also known… Continue reading
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Unlocking Consumer Loan Pricing: A Deep Dive into Survival Regression Algorithms
In the evolving landscape of consumer lending, fintech companies have revolutionized borrower experiences, introducing real-time approvals and swift fund transfers. While tree-based classification models like XGBoost currently dominate credit scoring, survival regression algorithms are an intriguing alternative. (Quick note: These survival algorithms extend beyond consumer credit to products with recurring payments, such as subscriptions or… Continue reading
